2018 two months before the Japanese brand sales interpretation: clear inventory to meet the impact

Since the Chinese New Year in February this year continued until the end of the month, the OEMs tend to increase their efforts in January to make the data distorted. Therefore, taking into account the New Year's factors, the driving team sent a statistical analysis of the sales in January-February, which would objectively reflect the situation during this period. At the same time, we have also carried out some sorts of 1-2 month production. As can be seen from the two comparisons, 1-2 months are mainly a period of destocking. For example, the inventory difference (productivity-sales, positive value indicates increase in inventory, negative value indicates decrease in inventory) has a decrease of 7; the most inventory-removed item is FAW Toyota’s reduction of 21,000, while all others are in 78,000. About.

In addition, judging from the difference in inventory, the Japanese auto makers have maintained very restrained batch sales in January-February this year, which also reflects that the situation at the end of last year was not serious. In this regard, the driving team believes that the rapid growth period of the Japanese joint-venture vehicle has reached its peak, and most Japanese-based joint ventures are still based on steady development. At least in the first quarter, there has been no unexpected increase. In the context of the slowdown in the growth of the Chinese market, there are also many concerns about the current development trend of Japanese automakers. After all, independent brands such as Geely and the Great Wall continue to exert their efforts, while the market does not grow, but they have to grow. The inevitable is the share of Japan and South Korea and the legal system.

So, Japanese car companies can withstand this kind of impact this year? According to the January-February data, Japanese car makers are severely divided-Honda and Nissan are maintaining strong fighting power, while Toyota and other Japanese joint-venture car makers may become targets of “encirclement and suppression”.

Dongfeng Honda

Dongfeng Honda

January sales: 67,455 vehicles: 40.4%

February sales: 39,567 vehicles: -15%

January-February output: 108,704 vehicles growth rate: 13.6%

Total sales for January-February: 107022 growth rate: 13.1%

Guangqi Honda

January sales: 71,809 vehicles: 38.4%

February sales: 39,150 vehicles: 17.8%

January-February output: 103,737 vehicles growth rate: 7.3%

Total sales for January-February: 110959 vehicle growth rate: 30.3%

Guangzhou Automobile Songs

January sales: 640 vehicles: -72%

February sales: 378 vehicles: -40.5%

January-February output: 1440 growth rate: 30.9%

Total sales for January-February: 1018 growth rate: -6.7%

The Honda brand made a good start in January, but in February it slowed sales growth due to the CR-V's engine throttle. Although the sales data showed that Dongfeng Honda's total sales for January-February still maintained a growth rate of 13%, Honda's terminal data showed that the retail sales growth of Dongbu Honda during this period was only 3.6%. Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co., Ltd. accumulated sales of 90,144 units in January and February of 2018, a year-on-year ratio of 103.6%, of which the terminal fell 11.1% in February.

With the increasingly fierce “motor throttle” rights protection incident, Dongfeng Honda has stopped production of the 1.5T CR-V model since February and has instead gone all-out to produce a 2.0L hybrid version. From the exchange data presented by East Ben, the production capacity and the batch sale of hybrid CR-V have climbed to 8648 vehicles, which is 4 to 6 times that of the previous month. This will give rise to a problem - for the CR-V production line does not stop working, can only increase the production of hybrid CR-V, but its market capacity is only less than 2,000 vehicles, then how these super cars are prepared to digest What? Maybe soon the East Ben dealership will usher in a wave of mixed CR-V price cuts, which will definitely affect the price of the 1.5T version.

In any case, the "Oil Throttle" is a very serious blow to the main model of East Ben, and even if the matter is resolved, CR-V is likely to be reduced price and quantity - the price increase of East Ben will be difficult to reproduce. Of course, the February data is not the final result. After the suspension of sales of CR-V in March, the impact on East Ben will be further manifested.

As for why this Eastern Conference will be caused by an "accident"? Personally think that this is actually not related to the "throttle" itself, but a concentration of consumer sentiment. It is true that there is indeed an impact of increased engine oil on the engine, but it is not debatable that there is not such a large range of impact.

The reason why consumers launch such fierce attacks on “throttle wheel” is that the price increase caused by the hot sales of Civic and CR-V models in recent years has long been a target of public criticism. Nature will never let you go.

Moreover, in the opinion of the media public opinion, the absence of a long-term marketing communication in East Ben has led to a large number of small media and self-media media reporting on the throttle with “just attitude” and Dongben has no recourse. As a comparison, Changan CS75 also happened to have “throttle” during this period. However, we could search out a large number of users “testimonials” on the Internet to recognize Chang’an’s “active action”, which is “the power of PR”.

The broad aspect is also silently concerned about the subsequent development of the engine throttle event, as its most important tenth-generation Accord will also carry a 1.5T engine. The current sales volume of Guangben is also based on stability, and its force has to wait until mid-April to launch the new Accord, and prepare to compete with Camry.

The most bizarre thing is that Guangzhou Automobile's Yangge, the high-flying TLX-L listed after the performance is not even tepid, has been only two-digit terminal sales for two consecutive months. We have been speculating before that whether or not the official production has not yet started, but it has remained the same for the past two months. In fact, our monthly sales of the TLX-L are expected to be “at least 800 to 1,000 units.” One referenceable figure is that the number of Infiniti dealers is more than twice the number of singers. Its Q50L can sell an average of 2,000 vehicles a month. , how to double-digit how to chant TLX-L?

Dongfeng Infiniti:

Can the new QX50 really ride the Saviour alone?

January sales: 8 vehicles: -99.6%

February sales: 1642 growth rate: 38.2%

January-February output: 1757 vehicle growth rate: -53.6%

Total sales for January-February: 1650 units: -52.3%

In January-February this year, Dongfeng Infiniti was restructuring the production line. In January, it completely shut down its existing production lines, including the Q50L and QX50. In mid-February, it restarted the mid-stage Q50L production line. The QX50 should then be released at the Beijing Auto Show in April. Even so, we believe that it is unlikely that Dongfeng Infiniti will make any significant progress – the QX50's ability to achieve a monthly sales volume of 2,000 vehicles is already beyond its target.

At present, the information received by the Shishi faction is that the QX50 does not have much means to compete with existing luxury medium-sized SUVs in the market except for the variable compression ratio engine, especially in the aspect of interconnection functions. We would like to emphasize once again that this year the Audi Q5L, BMW X3 and Mercedes-Benz GLC-L will already be playing in this market, and it is not easy for the remaining three or four line luxury brands to break through.

Changan Suzuki: The silent ending

January sales: 4856 vehicles growth rate: -42.9%

February sales: 3,280 vehicles: -45.3%

January-February output: 7903 vehicle growth rate: -38.4%

Total sales for January-February: 8,136 vehicles: -43.9%

Can not make any analysis of Chang'an Suzuki's current situation, because it probably has no meaning, and I do not know what Changan Suzuki's staff feels.

Ma Zida: Rationality of Annual Growth of 10,000 Vehicles

FAW Mazda

January sales: 13,469 vehicles growth rate: 10.5%

February sales: 8051 growth rate: -5.8%

January-February Production: 13,469 Vehicles Increased by 57.48%

Total sales for January-February: 21,520 vehicles: 3.7%

Changan Mazda

January sales: 21,887 vehicles: 39.2%

February sales: 8798 growth rate: -26.6%

January-February output: 30,493 vehicles: 21.7%

Total sales for January-February: 30,685 vehicles: 10.7%

According to the terminal data provided by Mazda, the cumulative retail sales of the Mazda brand in the Chinese market in January-February this year increased 32.4% year-on-year to 54,044 vehicles, setting a record high for the same period in January-February. Among them, FAW Mazda increased 9.0% year-on-year to 21,535 units; Changan Mazda increased 54.4% year-on-year to 32,509 units.

Compared with the batch sales data of the CLUCC, both FAW Mazda and Changan Mazda fell a lot in February, but the end market data actually maintained a very strong growth - the former increased by 9.7% and the latter increased by 42.6%. So this is also what our article began to say. The Spring Festival factor is very misleading to the judgment of the sales trend.

What led to Mazda’s domestic growth? It is CX-5!

After the mid-term reorganization, the CX-5 faced a good time. In particular, the CR-V problem caused the car's sales to increase substantially. Especially after the 90s, the young people's enthusiasm for the CX-5 was much higher than that of Qi and RAV4. .

However, this year Mazda has made it clear that its target sales volume is only 310,000 units - less than 10,000 units sold last year. It can be imagined that Mazda is not optimistic about the market trend this year, especially if this year's new products cannot keep up. The Mazda’s goal of maintaining sales in this way has actually proven that CX-8 is likely to be imported for the first time, so don’t expect too much.

Guangzhou Automobile Mitsubishi: sales up, the brand did not keep up

January sales: 15682 growth rate: 96%

February sales: 10006 growth rate: 42.9%

January-February output: 25,985 vehicles: 57.8%

Total sales for January-February: 25,688 vehicles: 71.2%

In 2018, GAC Mitsubishi is likely to continue to grow because it has now identified its new Coupe SUV - Eclipse Cross will be made this year. At present, this new car is supposed to be a vehicle model that targets customers and binzhi. Although there are not many bright spots at the product level, the design may attract the eyes of some consumers regardless of the number of consumers. All must be incremental. However, on the other hand, for a new car company that has just passed 100,000 units in sales every year, the biggest problem is to bury its car and ignore the brand's branding - to tell the truth, Mitsubishi's next direction of development, or the future It is not clear what the positioning and expectations of the Chinese market are.

Toyota:

Camry fails to bloom small SUVs to lower expectations

GAC Toyota

January sales: 45,591 vehicles: 0.4%

February sales: 22,602 vehicles: -13.1%

January-February output: 62,831 vehicles: -1.6%

Total sales for January-February: 68,193 vehicles: -4.5%

a Toyota

January sales: 83775 vehicles growth rate: 52%

February sales: 39,968 vehicles: -26.7%

January-February output: 102,646 vehicles: -1%

Total sales for January-February: 123,743 vehicles: 12.8%

According to Toyota’s retail data, Toyota’s sales in China in January increased by 25% year-on-year to 127,500 units. In February, sales fell 6.3% year-on-year to 76,700 units. The comparison with the batch sales volume in January-February is also basically the same, but the decline in sales volume in February was significant, which dragged down the performance during this period.

Toyota's main increase is still to eat up the Honda CR-V's share of decline - RAV4 total sales rose 22.2% in January-February, with an average monthly sales of more than 12,000, is very rare. However, Guangzhou Automobile’s new Camry’s sales did not increase, even if the hybrid Camry had a certain amount of compensation due to its superior price/performance ratio. The average monthly sales volume also reached 8,000 units, which is still a long way from the 10,000-class level – and in contrast, the Accord This period is an average of 16,000 vehicles per month.

More importantly, if Camry can not afford to start yet, it will be even harder to wait for the tenth-generation Accord to go public. Guangfeng, who originally wanted to avoid the price war, may have to return to the old road.

This year, the outside world sees C-HR and Takuza as the hope of Toyota. However, from the perspective of the car companies setting up a new 2.0-liter engine for them, the chances of taking the two cars are not great. It is recommended that everyone lower their expectations for the listing of the two models (sale price), and personal speculation may be equivalent to the price of the high-grade Chi Chi or XR-V. As a result, Toyota can really achieve sales of 1.4 million units in the Chinese market this year?

Dongfeng Nissan:

Can Blue Bird, Tiida, and Jinke support 30,000 vacancies?

January sales: 94,073 vehicles: 15.6%

February sales: 54508 growth rate: 4.7%

January-February output: 141160 vehicles growth rate: 2.8%

Total sales for January-February: 148,581 vehicle growth rate: 11.4%

Dongfeng Nissan’s sales volume reached 140,000 units in January-February, and although it is still undoubtedly the single largest Japanese joint-venture car company, it is far behind Honda’s 210,000 units if measured by the sales volume of daily product passenger cars. And Toyota's 200,000 class level. So, for Dongfeng Nissan, we should consider the sales volume of the Japanese product brand in China, or should we consider the share of Dongfeng Nissan as a joint venture vehicle manufacturer? Personally think that under the premise that Dongfeng Nissan is absolutely the oldest Japanese joint-venture car company, how to stabilize monthly sales to 100,000 units or even 120,000 units is the key to promoting the development of Dongfeng Nissan.

Now let's take a look at the progress of Dongfeng Nissan. Qi Chun has a 39% year-on-year increase in base count due to its small base last year. Actually, after the CR-V was caught in the "accelerator", Qijun's sales volume should have increased even more. It seems that it was diverted to a product like the CX-5. Now. The crackdown on mid-term refinancing this year is already firmly in place and is expected to be released this year at the Beijing Auto Show. Now it can only be said to be stable. As for the largest sales of Dongfeng Nissan, it is necessary to stabilize it at an average of 30,000 vehicles per month. Even Dongfeng Nissan has promoted the powertrain for the classic Sylphy. It is conceivable how important Dongfeng Nissan is for Sylphy.

But in addition, the 1-2 month Dongfeng Nissan other models, such as Jinke, Bluebird, Tiida, Loulan's wholesale performance are very sluggish, it can be seen that the situation is more serious pressure last year. Therefore, Dongfeng Nissan must increase the sales volume of these vehicles to at least 30,000 vehicles in order to achieve an average contribution of 30,000 vehicles for SUVs, Sylphy and mid-size cars.

The monthly sales have to break through the 100,000 mark. Another important model is Tianzhu. Although Tianyi will be replaced in the fourth quarter this year, Dongfeng Nissan can gain market share through price advantage - because the Accord and Camry have just completed replacement, the price is relatively strong, while the 15-180,000 yuan of medium and high-grade car products are optional and Not much, this is the space of heaven.