Rapid changes in the automotive market turmoil domestic car market

For China's auto industry, the past year has been a dramatic one. During this year, the automotive industry has not only exciting and exciting events but also a disturbing change.

In 2012, it was the second year that the Chinese auto industry entered a period of low growth. According to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, in the first 11 months of 2012, China's automobile production and sales increased by 4.51% and 4.03% respectively year-on-year. Although the car sales data for December 2012 has not yet been announced, judging from the statistics of the previous November, it is no problem that China’s automobiles will exceed 20 million vehicles throughout the year.

Recalling that in 2012, the automotive market showed unprecedented trends and patterns: In the second half of 2012, the sales of Japanese automakers suffered from Waterloo. The original unbeatable automakers' performance improved in the second half of the year, and overseas exports grew steadily; The luxury car market was the first time that the price war made the luxury car dealer pressure unprecedented. At the industry level, foreign brands in 2012 undoubtedly increased competition in the Chinese market. Several car companies increased investment in expansion; Fiat and Mitsubishi made domestic production again, and the luxury brand Infiniti also announced the realization of domestic production; at the same time, the German brand BMW. , Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen have all made major personnel adjustments. After the decline in sales of Japanese cars, the original German, Japanese, and Korean brands and their own brand markets have undergone new changes.

It is these changes that make the automotive market in 2012 exceptionally different, and market changes and adjustments exist at all times. At the Fourth China Economic Forward-looking Forum Auto Forum held on December 29th, 2012, Li Xiaoqian, Party Secretary and Vice President of China Economic Times, described the overall auto market situation as: “2012 is a profound adjustment of the Chinese auto market. Year of the year.” With the advent of 2013, the impact of this profound change on the future of the automotive market is worth pursuing and exploring.

Joint venture competition and independent opportunities

Although it is in a period of low growth, the competition in the Chinese auto market is even fiercer in 2012, whether it is product competition or strategic competition.

In 2012, almost all joint-venture brands increased their product launch efforts in the domestic market, and the launch of joint-venture self-owned brand models also brought market competition to a high point. Statistics show that as many as hundreds of new models were imported and joint venture brands in 2012. It is worth noting that, in terms of products, joint venture brands adopt a multigenerational model, which has become the most peculiar phenomenon in the Chinese market.

Compared with the diversification of joint venture products, the in-depth market penetration of joint venture models has made the market more competitive. At present, in the mainstream joint venture brands on the market, the occupation of market segments has become a killer for various car companies. The low-end models such as Sail, Swift, and Accent continue to deepen the subdivision of passenger cars, while the GAC Mitsubishi Jin Hyun, GM Angecla, Hyundai iX35 and the new Sundat combination also further penetrate into the SUV market, making the future SUV market More intense.

Behind the product is also the competition between the joint venture brand car companies, especially between the general public and the GM. Since Volkswagen’s sale of the crown in China to GM in 2004, Volkswagen has not been able to lead the Chinese auto market. In November 2012, Volkswagen Group sold about 270,000 vehicles in the Chinese market, an increase of about 22% year-on-year, exceeding the previous market leader, General Motors. In November, GM sold 260,000 vehicles, an increase of 9.7% year-on-year.

According to the data, from January to November of 2012, GM sold 2.59 million vehicles in China, while Volkswagen sold 2.53 million vehicles, an increase of 20.2% from 2.11 million vehicles in the same period last year. It is interesting to note that in December 2012, Volkswagen's sales in the market soared all the way to the general trend. Previously there was news that the data from the Ministry of Public Security showed that Volkswagen had achieved the title all year round.

Compared with joint-venture brands, in 2012, self-owned brands faced upward pressure in the second half of the year. According to data from the China Automobile Association, in November, the number of self-owned brand passenger cars sold was 638,600, an increase of 11.9% over the same period of the previous year, accounting for 43.7% of the total sales of passenger cars, which was an increase of 1.2% over the same period of last year. From January to November, the sales volume of self-owned brand passenger cars was 5.796 million, which was an increase of 4.9% over the same period of last year, accounting for 41.3% of the total passenger car sales, which was a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the same period of last year, and the decline continued to narrow.

Domestic sales of self-owned brands are also gratifying, with independent brands achieving good results in overseas markets. According to statistics, car exports were good in November 2012, which maintained a rapid growth rate over the same period of last year. From January to November, a total of 964,700 vehicles were exported, an increase of 27.2% over the same period of the previous year. Not only that, in 2012, the export model of self-owned brand companies has also changed: from the initial simple export of vehicles to the construction of local factories, local production, and independent brands gradually mature in overseas markets.

Luxury price war and distributor pressure

In the luxury car market in 2012, the price war has become the most profound impact of luxury cars, especially the unusually chaotic price reductions of imported luxury cars. Many luxury car brands have far more price cuts than manufacturers have set.

The reason is mainly that with the declining auto market in Europe and the United States, in the case of the growth of the Chinese luxury car market, luxury vehicle manufacturers have transferred their original foreign production to the Chinese market, which has led to a sharp increase in the number of imported cars. In fact, in 2012, the overall growth rate of China’s auto market slowed down, and the lack of growth in sales terminals has become the development trend of the auto market. Currently, the domestic market demand and supply of imported cars have reached a balance, and even the oversupply has occurred. Therefore, imports An effective way for cars to occupy the future market is to choose to sell at a reduced price. The far-reaching impact of the luxury car price war, in addition to the luxury car brand price, the inventory of luxury car dealers also increased its operating pressure. Dealer circulation data shows that since 2012, the pressure on luxury car dealers has been unprecedented. In addition to serious losses, some luxury car dealers even went bankrupt.

The Chinese auto market in 2012 was not only faced with pressure from a single luxury car dealer, but also pressure from some large distributor groups. At the 4th China Economic Forecast Forum Automotive Forum, Pang Qinghua, chairman of the largest dealer group in China, said that 2012 is the year that he has felt the most pressure since he started his career. Car circulation market. According to previous survey data, among the tens of thousands of dealers nationwide, only 30% of the distributors stated that they have achieved profitability.

Change of pattern

The change in the domestic auto market in 2012 was not only in sales but also at the industry level.

In spite of the slight increase of 4.03% in the overall automotive market in the first 11 months, in the passenger vehicle industry, passenger cars still grew by 7.09% to reach 14,320,400 units. This huge increase is not a problem for many car companies. Small temptation. Therefore, increasing importance and investment in the Chinese market is inevitable.

In the investment, Volkswagen, General Motors, Nissan and Hyundai Group have become leaders in rapid expansion. The Volkswagen Group's strategy for 2018 proposes to increase its domestic production volume to 4 million vehicles. Dongfeng Nissan not only increased its mass production scale to 1.2 million units in China, but also introduced the Nissan luxury brand Infiniti, making this luxury brand finally domestically produced in China. In 2012, GAC Fiat and GAC Mitsubishi were also announced as the first new car to be launched domestically. From the perspective of the re-domestic and renewed ambitions of the two brands, they are aiming at the long-term goal of the Chinese market.

Compared with increasing investment and domestic production in the Chinese market, improving the market position in China is also an important strategy for various car companies. In 2012, GM and Volkswagen have all re-adjusted their top executives in China, hoping to further improve their performance in this market. Similarly, the adjustment of luxury brands in China, including the German luxury brands BMW and Mercedes-Benz, has a clearer intention to directly increase and increase the status and role of the Chinese market. Through direct personnel adjustment, BMW expects that sales in China can exceed Audi, and Mercedes-Benz is also intending to adjust its management in the Chinese market to ensure the overall strategy of BMW and Audi. What is certain is that with the strategic adjustment of many foreign brands, the status of the Chinese market has become irreplaceable. Some analysts believe that the success or failure of the Chinese market can even affect the global strategy of many car companies, such as the current highly competitive global "big three" - Volkswagen, GM, Toyota.

The test of automobile society

Regardless of the future situation of the market, one fact that cannot be changed is that with the continuous increase in the number of car ownership, China has gradually entered the automobile society. At the same time, due to China's excessive growth rate and huge increase, the automobile brings superiority to people and brings with it a series of social contradictions. At the 4th China Automotive Forward-looking Forum Auto Forum, Chen Wenkai, director of the Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute, said directly that assuming that the number of Chinese cars will increase from the current 100 million to 300 million in the next decade, traffic congestion, energy supply and Environmental pressure will be unacceptable for the automotive society. In the face of this series of problems and contradictions, how to maintain the rights of people to own automobiles, but also to solve many problems and contradictions in a reasonable manner, not only becomes a difficult problem, but also puts greater thought on our future automobile industry policy.

In the market reform, what kind of policies do we need to rationally develop the automobile industry in the future?

Prior to this, Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, described it in "Discussions on Certain Issues Concerning the Automotive Industry." Liu Shijin divided China's automobile industry into three periods: "adolescence" (or rapid growth period), steady growth period, and mature growth period (after 2020). He believes that China's auto market has entered a steady growth period since 2011. As far as the automotive market is concerned, “One lesson that needs to be learned in the growth of puberty in previous years is that government policies should reduce (automotive industry) rather than exacerbate growth volatility. With China's autos entering a period of steady growth, the auto market will be Control should be more cautious."

Liu Shijin stated that in the future, the development of China's auto industry will also face a series of arduous tasks such as structural optimization and upgrading, technological progress, and promotion of innovation. This requires the government to change from a relatively "direct participant" in the past to an "environment creator." The contradictions and problems that arise in the development of the automotive industry with society and the environment should also be resolved through better interaction in the interaction, including the future in the new energy strategy.