Rubber prices are expected to stabilize and pick up tire manufacturing costs

In December 2012, the National Association of Natural Rubber Producers released a monthly report saying that, as a whole, the growth of rubber production in major rubber-producing countries slowed down in 2012, but consumption maintained a steady increase. Experts said that the fundamentals will play a positive role in boosting the price of rubber. At the same time, the rubber-producing countries will increase the price of rubber by purchasing and storing natural rubber. Natural rubber is used as the main raw material for the manufacture of tires , and its price increases. It will inevitably lead to an overall increase in tire manufacturing costs .

Slower output growth in 2012

Recently, the Natural Rubber Producing Countries Association (ANRPC) stated in its monthly report in November that a total of three member states had adjusted their 2012 natural rubber production: Cambodia, India and the Philippines, respectively, from the previous month’s 67,500 tons and 920,000 tons. 11.39 million tons were adjusted to 67,300 tons, 913,000 tons and 113,000 tons.

At the same time, natural rubber exports have further decreased in 2012. In November, India adjusted its 2012 annual export data for rubber, which was reduced from 35,000 tons last month to 27,000 tons; Cambodia and the Philippines also lowered their annual export data, down from 68,700 tons and 51,300 tons, respectively. To 67,400 tons, 49,700 tons.

Since the beginning of this year, the price of natural rubber has “turned and froze”, and Hujiao's main strength fell from the high of 28,145 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a low of 20,700 yuan/ton during the year in August. The storage and storage of natural rubber, followed by the implementation of natural rubber restrictions on export programs in Indonesia and Malaysia. The plan began in October this year and is scheduled to end in March next year.

Peng Cheng, China Everbright Futures analyst, told reporters, “As a result of this, the November report of the Natural Rubber Producing Countries Association has further reduced the total rubber production and export data for 2012 from the October report.”

Member countries have raised rubber import data

ANRPC also further raised the overall import growth rate of member countries in 2012 from the 11.9% expected value of the October report to 15%, that is, from 4.326 million tons to 4.452 million tons. Member countries with upward adjustments in import data include China, India, and Malaysia.

As the largest consumer of natural rubber, China raised its total imports of natural rubber in 2012, which was revised upwards from 3.184 million tons in October to 3.279 million tons. November monthly report, India also increased import data: increased by 10,500 tons to 223,900 tons. In addition, Malaysia has also raised its 740,000 tons to 763,000 tons.

In the first 11 months of 2011, the total import growth of member countries over the same period of 2010 was 1.6%, which rose from 3.439 million tons in January to November 2010 to 3.494 million tons. In the first 11 months of this year, the total import volume of member countries recorded an increase of 17.3%, and the total import volume was 4.096 million tons.

The main reason is that China has shown a positive market signal for economic recovery, and imports of natural rubber have increased significantly. In addition, Malaysia, India and Vietnam recorded increases of 17.9%, 55.4% and 2.9% respectively.

“Since the natural rubber spot price was dragged down by the futures prices, and the main consumer country, the Chinese economy began to pick up, and the import of natural rubber increased, the ANRPC report increased the import growth rate. From this point of view, we can see from the fundamentals, The price of natural rubber is positive," said analyst Peng Cheng.

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Consumption maintains steady growth

It is reported that China adjusted its 2012 total consumption of natural rubber from 3.876 million tons to 3.834 million tons. At the same time, India, Malaysia, the Philippines and Sri Lanka also raised their 2012 consumption of natural rubber.

The total consumption of ANRPC member countries in the first 11 months of 2011 totaled 5.718 million tons, an increase of 3.3% over 2010. In the same period this year, natural rubber consumption increased to 5.732 million tons.

It is worth noting that the growth rate of China's natural rubber consumption increased from 4.9% in the first 11 months of last year to 6.7% in the same period of this year. India's consumption growth rate was steady at 1.0 percent in the first 11 months of last year (the consumption growth rate was 0.6% in the first 10 months of 2011), and this year's growth rate has increased significantly to 4.8%. Vietnam, which has the same trend, rose from 5.5% last year to 7.4%. Although Malaysia's natural rubber consumption growth rate was negative during the first 11 months of last year, this year, it recorded the highest growth in consumption among member countries: 8.6%. The consumption situation in Sri Lanka did not change from last year.

The rise in the price of natural rubber has become an inevitable trend, and the tire manufacturing costs will also increase. This will have a certain impact on the overall recovery of the auto parts industry. Tire manufacturers in the auto parts industry must find ways to ease the adverse effects of rising natural rubber prices by improving manufacturing technology and reducing labor costs.

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