Under the policy support, the development of hardware lighting LED lighting has a large space
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With the support of the policy, the LED lighting market will have a larger space in 2013, and related listed companies are expected to benefit. From the valuation point of view, LED lighting company's current PE is indeed relatively high, but PEG is in a relatively reasonable position. Zhou Jianbing, an analyst at Guojin Securities Wealth Management Center, said.
With the support of policies, the growth of industry demand can be expected recently, and the LED lighting industry seems to be warm. With the EU completely banned incandescent lamps, LED lighting applications have entered a stage of qualitative change, and with the support of domestic policies, LED lighting is also expected to accelerate penetration.
In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology and other six ministries recently jointly issued the "Semiconductor Lighting Energy Conservation Industry Plan", further clearly expounding the development goals, main tasks and supporting measures of China's LED industry during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, and clearly promote the LED lighting energy saving The output value has increased by about 30 per year. In 2015, it reached 450 billion yuan, of which the LED industry application products reached 180 billion yuan.
The data shows that the output value of LED general lighting in China in 2012 was close to 42 billion yuan, an increase of 40; the annual output was 310 million, and the number increased significantly; the manufacturing capacity and export volume of LED lighting products ranked first in the world.
The industry depends on the development prospects. The main point of the LED lighting field is that it will be supported by policies and will form a large-scale enterprise. Zhou Jianbing said.
In fact, the global LED market has gradually recovered from last October, and demand has risen sharply in the first quarter of this year, while emerging markets have performed particularly well. At present, Russia, Thailand, Vietnam, India, Africa and other countries and regions have seen an increase in investment in infrastructure construction. In 2013, the demand for LED lighting in emerging markets will continue to heat up.
From the perspective of the external market, the first is that the global economy is gradually picking up, especially the expected recovery of the US economy. Second, the current energy supply is tightening, and the global demand for energy conservation is increasing. Third, China is accelerating the pace of urbanization and demanding energy consumption in the future. Will be further improved. Therefore, whether it is from the current market performance or future development, the LED lighting industry has a broad space, and the probability of market recovery is greater. He Zaihua, a senior researcher at China Investment Consulting, said.
He believes that the LED lighting companies' recent performance has improved due to the global economic recovery and the improvement of national energy conservation and emission reduction requirements. In addition, the second quarter is the traditional sales season for commercial lighting, so it is expected that the performance of LED lighting companies will be improved.
Founder Securities believes that LED lighting application products are the most directly benefiting from the policy pull. In the next few years, although energy-saving lamps will still occupy the largest category of lamps in terms of market share, LEDs will continue to decline in cost and price. Under the conditions, the replacement cost difference between the energy saving lamp and the energy saving lamp is further reduced.
In fact, in order to increase government procurement of energy-saving products, the Ministry of Finance and the National Development and Reform Commission recently adjusted the list of government procurement of energy-saving products that have been released. The adjusted procurement list has increased LED lighting products for the first time. According to statistics, LED lighting products entering the purchase list include LED road/tunnel lighting products, LED downlights, and reflective self-rectifying LED lights. The number of selected products is 251, 177, 90, respectively, involving 84 companies, including listed companies. Nearly 20 homes.
There is a long way to go to the production capacity. Leading manufacturers can be concerned. However, there is always a problem of overcapacity in the field of LED lighting. Many analysts believe that the structural overcapacity of the LED industry will continue in 2013, and related companies will continue to pass. Reduce prices to digest inventory and gain market share.
In fact, the recent performance of related listed companies is flat. Taking Changfang Lighting as an example, the company expects net profit for the first quarter of this year to be 10.35 million yuan to 12.6 million yuan, a decrease of 28.87 to 13.4. The company said that it is currently in the expansion period and the cost is high, so the sales expenses have increased significantly. The company's profits have fallen.
At present, the overcapacity situation in China's LED lighting industry has improved, but the problem is still serious. The lack of uniform industry standards has led to low entry barriers, while high government subsidies and preferential tax policies have attracted large amounts of funds into the LED lighting industry, and many companies do not have the relevant technology. As a result, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises are concentrated in the low value-added production field, and the low-end overcapacity situation is more serious, while the core technology is not competitive. He said in China.
He believes that China's LED lighting companies still face many problems, not only in the disorderly competition of the industry, but also lack of core competitiveness and the intervention of international giants will have an impact on their business conditions.
So, for investors, how do you view the investment opportunities and valuations of the LED lighting sector?
At present, the overall PE of the market is only 11 or 12 times, and the overall valuation of the LED lighting sector is about 30 times. Assuming that it has a growth rate of 35 in the future, PEG is still below 1. Investors can select companies with integration capabilities as targets. We are more optimistic about companies with upstream and downstream integration capabilities in the industry chain. In addition, the risk of this sector comes from policy changes on the one hand, and overcapacity on the other hand. If the situation of oversupply does not change, it will still affect the company's performance. Zhou Jianbing said.
He believes that if there is a breakthrough technology to reduce the cost of LED lighting, then the space will be even greater. The problem is still that the price of LED lighting products is too high, affecting the demand of the market.
Founder Securities believes that the LED industry will gradually recover under the policy push this year. From the analysis of all links in the industry chain, it can be seen that the midstream package of the industry is affected by price suppression and the downward transmission of upstream overcapacity. .
The brokerage believes that the upstream investment progress of the industry is slowing down, and the further digesting of production capacity has improved the fundamentals. Leading manufacturers with scale advantages will further occupy a favorable position in the market. The LED lighting application field directly benefits from the policy-driven demand, and the lighting manufacturers with brand and channel advantages enjoy the advantage in the competition. Sanan Optoelectronics and downstream sunlight lighting in the upstream of the LED lighting industry chain are worthy of attention.
In Vietnam, for example, Vietnam will achieve a level of urbanization of 38 by 2015, which will be a great opportunity for China's LED lighting exports. In addition, countries including India and others have spared no effort in promoting the conversion of traditional lighting systems into LED lighting, and it is also expected to import a large number of LED lighting products in China.