Jia Xinguang: It is impossible to rely on institutional forecasts to grasp market conditions

Recently, some domestic organizations have disagreed on the 2012 auto market forecast, and there are optimistic and pessimistic expectations. In fact, this kind of forecast is of little value to the industry because the forecast itself is uncertain, not to mention the fact that the real market is changing rapidly. Someone has played an analogy: The prediction is like a fast-running rabbit aiming at a car 100 kilometers per hour. Others have metaphorized the predictions as if the driver blindfolded and was driven by a person in the back seat. It's all very difficult. However, some people say that forecasting is easy to do. Kotler said in Marketing Management: “The easiest expert is the expert who predicts the future. He only needs to have: a wealth of imagination and the use of vivid words.”

The market forecast should adopt the method of investigation and research, but the cost is high and the accuracy is not high. Many institutions use mathematical models, but the choice of variables is difficult to accurately determine. In fact, people are still scratching their heads.

Looking back at the car market forecast in recent years, we can see that the success rate is very low.

For example, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association") predicts that China's automobile production and sales in 2006 can achieve a 12% growth, and the annual production and sales of automobiles will exceed 6.4 million vehicles. In 2006, the actual annual automobile production was 727.97 million units, an increase of 27.32% compared with 2005; and the sales of automobiles was 721.60 million, an increase of 25.13% over 2005.

China Automobile Association predicts that the total demand of the auto market in 2007 will be 8 million, an increase of 14.3%; in 2007, the actual automobile production was 8,881,300, an increase of 22.00% over 2006; and the annual auto sales were 8,790,500, an increase of 21.82% over 2006.

At the beginning of 2008, the China Automobile Association’s forecast is 10 million, an increase of 25%. However, in July, the China Automobile Association will reduce the expected increase to 7% -10%. They said that the reason for the slowdown in growth forecast was mainly due to the tightening of macroeconomic policies. In 2008, the actual automobile production was 9.3451 million units, an increase of 5.21% compared to 2007; the automobile sales were 9,380,500 units, an increase of 6.70% over 2007.

In 2009, foreign companies, domestic joint venture companies, and some famous organizations are expected to have different divergence. Optimistic estimates will maintain a 10% increase, pessimistic estimates are negative 10%. In 2009, the actual automobile production was 13.791 million, an increase of 48.30%; the sales of automobiles were 13,644,800, an increase of 46.15%.

CAAC predicts that the growth rate of automobile production and sales in 2010 will be around 10%, and it is expected to reach 15 million vehicles. In 2010, the actual automobile output reached 18,264,700 units, an increase of 32.44% year-on-year; sales were 18,061,900 units, an increase of 32.37% year-on-year.

China Automobile Association is expected to increase by 10%-15% in 2011, and the annual production and sales are expected to reach 20 million vehicles. In 2011, the production and sales of automobiles reached 18.8199 million vehicles and 18.5051 million vehicles, a slight increase of 0.84% ​​and 2.45% year-on-year respectively.

On the other hand, even if the market forecast is relatively accurate, it is only a simple reference for the enterprise. The key is to find out where the market is and how large the company is. When the market changes, companies should adjust their strategies in a timely manner. In the same situation, there are some companies whose products are in short supply, some companies are selling at a low level, and some even lose money. Even in the high market temperatures of 2009-2010, some companies still felt a deep chill, and in the depressed market in 2011, there were also companies that could pay 27 months of wages.

PU Pneumatic Pipe

There are many kinds of pneumatic pipes, which are generally produced with PU raw materials, with stable quality, high pressure resistance, weather resistance, wear resistance, zigzag resistance, smooth and flexible pipe body, bright color, high elasticity, winding resistance and small bending radius.

The tube body is smooth and flexible, bright color, high elasticity, winding resistance and small bending radius. Temperature range: - 15 - + 70 ℃.

Product classification

1. Pu pneumatic pipe

2. Pu (polyether) pneumatic pipe

3. Pu (polyurethane) bobbin

4. Pu (polyether) bobbin

difference:

Polyurethane pneumatic pipe is over air type. If it is used for over water, its service life will be affected,

Polyether pneumatic pipe can pass air or water, with more stable physical properties and longer normal service life. It is an ideal material for pneumatic pipe.

The bobbin is wrapped with a layer of fiber in the middle of the common pneumatic pipe. Therefore, the bobbin is more solid, pressure resistant and non explosive than the common pneumatic pipe.

Product selection

What should be considered when choosing the type of plastics for blow molding pneumatic pipe?

The following aspects should be considered in the selection of pneumatic pipe materials.

Whether the wall thickness of the welded blank of the pneumatic pipe can be kept uniform, whether a higher blowing pressure is needed, whether the blowing is uniform, whether the surface of the pneumatic pipe is bright, whether the demoulding is easy, and whether the strength can meet the requirements, etc.

Performance comparison of plastics for blow molding pneumatic pipe. The pneumatic tube formed by blow molding is in thermoelastic state, and its density is smaller than that after cooling and shaping, resulting in shrinkage. For the general size of pneumatic pipe is not strict, forming shrinkage has little effect. But for the pneumatic pipes of specified size, such as some hoses used in precision machines, large shrinkage has a considerable impact. The larger the blowing volume is, the more significant the effect is.

The advantages of extruding and blowing plastic forming pneumatic pipe are less investment in production equipment, simple equipment structure, easy mold manufacturing, high forming of pneumatic pipe during production, uniform temperature control, and various specifications of pneumatic pipe can be formed. The disadvantage is that the wall thickness uniformity of pneumatic pipe is poor.

The advantages of injection blow molding pneumatic pipe are that the plastic pneumatic pipe has good product quality, accurate dimensions, no seams, uniform wall thickness, multi-mode molding production, high degree of automation, which is very suitable for large-scale high-efficiency production of small specifications. The disadvantage is that the investment of equipment and molding die is large, and the operation and production need skilled workers.

Product advantages

Excellent flexibility. The bending radius is small and the bending resistance is good. It has high elastic recovery memory effect.

Wear resistance, tearing and impact. It can resist some non corrosive chemicals and oils. It can circulate inflammable objects and weld.

It can be incinerated into ash 100% and is recognized as an environmental protection product

Good damping, smooth inner wall, low friction coefficient, high medium passing capacity, good flame retardant, non-toxic and tasteless,

The color can be customized on demand for easy pipeline identification.

Applicable range of pneumatic pipe

Assemble all kinds of pneumatic tools, pneumatic automation machinery, air compressor and all kinds of connecting pneumatic components.

performance parameter

Abrasion resistance: 30mg

Ultimate elongation: 390-480%

Burst pressure: 20-30kgf / cm2

Working vacuum: - 25hg60-15kgf / cm2

Tensile strength: 300kgf / cm2

The safety factor ratio of burst pressure and long-time service pressure is 3:1

Tips for pneumatic pipe

Polyurethane pneumatic hose is suitable for compressed air, ordinary industrial water and non corrosive oil. In order to maintain a long service life, it must be used under rated working pressure and ambient temperature. As the temperature rises, the working pressure should be reduced accordingly. If it exceeds the limit, the hose may break. If the fluid temperature is too high or the fluid is corrosive, the hose may break. If the working environment temperature is too high or there is chemical gas in the working space, the hose may crack. If the hose is stored in a wet place or the storage period is too long, the hose may hydrolyze or age, which may lead to fracture

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